Thursday, September 29, 2011

Estimates Vs Reality

-New unemployment filings dropped last week according to BLS to a seasonally adjusted 391,000. Believe it or not that's down from what BLS expected! Sure. They never show their hand or offer an estimated as a projection, until the race is over. Don't play poker with the BLS. What ever the numbers are they are too darn high at this point in pp administration. pp is even screaming at the black community to get off their dead asses and go to work? Where boss man? That is what community organizers do, I suppose.and pp wasn't very good at that so I am told. Fustrating isn't it. The hole pp has continued to excavate is approaching Jules Verns' novel proporations.
-Up pops reality: Way back in Econ 101, I was told 96% employed = full employment or 4.0% unemployment was the norm. Today neutral parties say 400,000/mo. new jobs are required for 3 years to get to 5.5% level, equal to #43's administration in 2007, which I guess is the new norm. Ok, that's a tall order, lets say 280,000/mo. That will take 5 years to reach the 5.5%. OK considering the unemployment levels have been in negative figures since 2008: but #43 recession was declared over in June
2009, they continued to declining at a slower rate. To the unemployed, the under employed or those now employed that are on the bubble, adds little comfort.
-To blow your socks off, the swing from negative numbers (today) and add say the 280,000 = the total number of jobs required, HOLY COW!
I would of said Hail Mary...but one of the nuts out in CA wants the school system to issue a mandate for children and teachers to stop saying "God bless you, when someone sneezes".
-I probably should not use the word "Holy", leaving just "COW" but that will just piss-off some one else.
-Silence is golden.........!

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